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Turner

EFL SCORIGAMI!

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In case you missed it, in week 1 of the NFL season we added a new “scorigami” to the record book as the Baltimore Ravens defeated the Miami Dolphins by a score of 59-10. Now, you may be asking yourself “What the heck is a scorigami?” Well, a scorigami is simple, it’s an end result of an NFL game that has never happened before, and once it does, it can no longer be considered a scorigami if it were to happen again. In 2018 we saw eight new scorigami’s hit the record books!

 

In the NFL, the most points ever scored(playoffs included) in a single game by a single team was 73(for the trivia buffs out there: 

Spoiler

that was done in the 1940 Championship Game by the Chicago Bears. They beat the Washington Redskins by a score of 73-0.)

 

As 73 is the current record for points scored in a game, that’s the baseline the scorigami has set its table out for. 73x73.  Since 1920, thousands of NFL games have been played. A lot of scores have happened and in that 73x73 table, in 2019(minus the week 1 score), we still have multiple hundreds of possible new scorigami’s floating out there. 

 

So with this out of the way you have to know where I am going with this by now....that’s right, EFL Scorigami! 

 

With the help of @MMFLEX we took a hard look at every single EFL score from the regular season and the playoffs and we turned it into our very own EFL Scorigami spreadsheet. Along the way, we decided to do some predictions and talk about our findings. We hope you enjoy the article and spreadsheet and hopefully you look forward to future scorigami’s happening not only here at the EFL, but in the NFL as well! 

 

 

Pre-Gaming 

Okay MM, I have just a few quick questions before we really dig in to the meat of the data: 

 

Before we start to take a look at both sections of scores we did, do you think we are going to find anything weird or unusual? 

 

MM: I don't know about unusual, but I'm expecting to see the overall scoring to increase from season to season and then I'm wondering if and when we begin to plateau. 

 

Turner: Personally I feel like Season 1 could be all original scorigami’s for the league, which wouldn’t surprise me given the sample size, but I’m definitely wanting to see if we do repeat any thing in Season 1, and if we do, how soon it happened. 

 

It looks like the EFL record for points scored in a game by one team stands at 62 back in Season 6. The next closest was 59, which was done 3 times. Season 8, Season 10, and Season 11. Now we have seen this record absolutely shattered in preseason, but for our records here, we are only looking at the regular season and playoffs, but are you surprised that 62 is the highest we have seen so far and do you think it’s weird or the sim typically stops teams from scoring 60+ in a regular season or playoff game? 

 

MM: I've always been intrigued by this. It does seem like the sim shuts scoring down in the mid 50s. I'm wondering if it's due to the sim capping receivers around 100-110 yards. After you get 3 WRs to 100 then you are essentially just throwing to BOTs or the RB. It's becoming more and more of a passing league so will we begin seeing lower scoring because of this? Probably not, but I'm curious. To get 50 you'd probably have to get lucky on a defensive touchdown too.

 

Turner: Yeah I think the wide receiver thing is definitely a reason why we don't get ridiculous scoring and more teams hitting the 50 point ledge and then surpassing into the 60's. Like you mentioned, you almost have to get a defensive touchdown, if not multiple, and your special teams needs to contribute as well. 

 

Since 62 is our highest score, that’s the baseline I am going to set our spreadsheet out for on both sides of the equation. That means we have a possible 3,844 score combinations, but since the losing team can not score more than the winning team we can automatically cut that in half. And since there are certain scores that can never happen(1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1, & 7-1), that should bring our possible score combinations to 1,915. We also need to account for ties in this equation in the fact that while they happen in the NFL, they do not happen here, so that is another 62 off the count, bringing our possible score combinations to 1,853. Of those, in 14 seasons plus four weeks of data, how many do you think we have hit so far? 

 

Turner: That’s a tough one, but also a fun one to try to dive into. You gotta think we are probably just now coming up on 700 games played from an entire league standpoint, I’d like to think a bulk of those were all original scorigami’s, but I have doubts with how crazy and random scoring can be here. I’ll say we have probably hit 600-615 scorigami’s. 

 

MM: That's absolutely crazy to think of that many possibilities, but I'm going to guess we have less than 200.

 

Kickoff

Turner: Well, we only have one thing here to do my man, gather our data and start plugging away!

 

MM: Let’s do it! 

 

Halftime

So after punching in 8 seasons of data, one score is starting to stand out from the rest: 27-24 has been achieved 13 times. The next closest is 31-28 with 7. As we continue to enter data, do you think 27-24 will take the crown for the score the league has seen the most, or will 31-28 creep up and take it, or heck even 34-17 and 30-24 have six occurrences each so far, will they be a dark horse? 

 

MM: I'm going to guess 31-28 will take the lead with us seeing the overall league scoring increase. That may even happen in the last few seasons.

 

Turner: With already having a 6 game lead, my gut tells me that 27-24 is going to be decisive winner here, but my brain tells me otherwise. Like you said, with a history and a pattern of more scoring in the league, it wouldn’t surprise me if 31-28 or even 34-17(because while scoring has been up, we have also had some pretty dominant defenses) catches up, and overtakes 27-24.  It’ll be interesting to keep plugging away on this data. 

 

Final

So all the data has been entered. We have officially played 702 games in the history of the EFL! And something really awesome happened too this past week...on our 700th official game, the Los Angeles Reign and the Miami Neptune, fittingly, made history again. They notched the second highest scoring game in EFL history and hit out 363rd original EFL SCORIGAMI! 

(I cannot get this to look bigger on mobile, so hopefully it is bigger in PC. If you find it hard to use the embedded sheet above, click the link below to view the spreadsheet!)

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRsQxt2wYEEZzBRhJXaerTHC_H_r42p8thUNbzR6hZBYpegEVTs978ut6KSM9bY1w/pubhtml?gid=1617281492&single=true

 

 

Turner: I was way off on my prediction. After thinking about that original answer, I had not factored in a few things, but oh well. Honestly, thinking back on it, even 363 surprises me. How about you? 

 

MM: Funny thing is I thought it was going to be way less and you thought way higher. I was closer though, so that means I'm better. It's like the middle school exercise of finding the median. The majority of the scores are all the common football scores, so that's why I thought it would be lower.

 

With 15 occurrences, 27-24 is officially the score we have seen the most in these 702 games. Next up is 20-17 with 11 occurrences. In the end does this surprise you? 

 

Turner: Honestly, not really. 27-24 is obviously a common scoring combination, and if I am looking at the data correctly, this is the second highest combination in the NFL, and the highest...? 20-17. That is really cool we share that with them. 

 

MM: It's surprising we saw 27-24 13 times through 8 season, and the next 6.5 seasons we only saw it twice. 20-17 really made a late push. I thought we'd have higher scores, but we've seen some really good defenses being formed.

 

Well, we have a lot more football to be played and a lot of scorigami possibilities still left out there, so here's to hoping we continue to fill this board! We hope you enjoyed this article, and hope you continue to follow the EFL's coverage of official scorigami occurrences as they happen week to week! 

 

Anything else in closing MM?

 

MM: Yup, I have two main thoughts: 

1) When, if ever, will we see 62 passed as the highest score? 

2) I believe the seasonal scoring trend will start to ebb and flow as this class of QBs will start to hit regression in a few years. It could be 15 more seasons before the scoring reaches it's peak again.

 

Turner: I had a fun time doing this and I’m looking forward to hitting new scorigami’s week to week and letting the folks know! 

 

*1500+ words, this collab article is good for both of our PTs this week* 


 

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I think part of it is everyone remembers when one team goes for 40+ but no one really remembers all those mid-20s games at all each week.

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Very cool! 

 

I might be dumb, but shouldn't every score involving a 1 be blacked out, since it's impossible to score a single point in the EFL?

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1 minute ago, TacticalHammer said:

Very cool! 

 

I might be dumb, but shouldn't every score involving a 1 be blacked out, since it's impossible to score a single point in the EFL?

You're right. Mistake on our part.

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1 minute ago, TacticalHammer said:

Very cool! 

 

I might be dumb, but shouldn't every score involving a 1 be blacked out, since it's impossible to score a single point in the EFL?

I thought about this, but I’m not sure if our sim can process the scores the same way they could in the NFL or not. Because in the NFL, it is definitely possible to score just 1 point.  Extremely rare(it’s never happened yet), but it  is possible.

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2 minutes ago, Turner said:

I thought about this, but I’m not sure if our sim can process the scores the same way they could in the NFL or not. Because in the NFL, it is definitely possible to score just 1 point.  Extremely rare(it’s never happened yet), but it  is possible.

How? 

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1 minute ago, TacticalHammer said:

How? 

The basic premise: If the team attempting a PAT is caught for a safety it awards the defense 1 point. 

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2 minutes ago, Turner said:

The basic premise: If the team attempting a PAT is caught for a safety it awards the defense 1 point. 

Ah, my bad. I did consider that, but thought it would still be a two-point safety. 

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1 hour ago, Symmetrik said:

We got a new Scorigami in week 5 :)

 

21 hours ago, Turner said:

Two more scorigami’s hit this week! 41-13 and 50-7! 

 

2 of em!

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12 minutes ago, Turner said:

 

 

2 of em!

41-13 was already listed as 1 on the sheet, I thought that meant it happened already

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21 minutes ago, Symmetrik said:

41-13 was already listed as 1 on the sheet, I thought that meant it happened already

Yup my bad. I was looking at 40-13 yesterday. 

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