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San Antonio Early Season Pass Game Analysis


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San Antonio Early Season Pass Game Analysis

Hey all! One of my favorite things to do in this league is digging into the stats as many people may know. By far my top favorite thing to look into, despite it not being super easy, is passing game efficiency numbers and analyzing quarterbacks and more recently I have done some things on defenses or wide receivers when it has come to passer rating against or when thrown to respectively. Now, I will focus things just on my team because honestly, I expected this offense to be much better but it is amongst the worst in the EFL and I think I know why and I just had to see for myself! So, for now we will look at Kirby Popopo and the receivers around him to get down to the bottom of the struggles so far for the Wolfpack!


You can take a look at all my raw data HERE !!!


QB Kirby Popopo


A more traditional pocket passer than the departing Ja LongArm, Popopo takes command over the San Antonio offense after spending the last couple seasons playing for the Seattle Predators and is technically the highest paid EFL player this season making $10,000,000 for Season 30.


Current Ranks (Raw EFL Index Stats):

Completions - 125 (8th in EFL)

Attempts - 216 (8th in EFL)

Pass Yards - 1,439 (7th in EFL)

Comp % - 57.9% (8th in EFL)

Pass TDs - 7 (T-8th in EFL)

Pass INTS - 2 (T-1st in EFL)

Passer Rating - 85.0 (7th in EFL)


What we can see is that Popopo ranks around 7 or 8 for most statistics but his one stat of interceptions is amongst the best so where he is not lighting it up in general, he is not turning the ball over and doing so at an elite rate. What is interesting here is that there are definitely 5 QBs in the EFL above the rest so comparatively, Popopo is among the top 2-3 in the middle group in terms of raw stats. Looking at some other stats we can maybe get a better look.


Current Ranks (Manual Advanced Stats):

TD Rate - 3.24% (9th in EFL)

INT Rate - 0.93% (2nd in EFL)

TD/INT Ratio - 3.50 (4th in EFL)

Yards/Attempt - 6.66 (7th in EFL)

Yards/Completion - 11.51 (7th in EFL)


Again, it is a lot of the same being right there around 7/8 and the stats that include the interceptions are among the best in the league so he does a really good job taking care of the ball. I wanted to look further to see what was up and see why a QB that takes care of the ball so well just does not have good other stats like yards per attempt or completion percentage.


The Wide Receivers:


The San Antonio receiving core is far from the days of having Markstrom/McIntyre or Markstrom/McDolin like they had back in the day and now rely on McIntyre as a lead guy and some other players brought back or brought in. Now you have a wide receiver core of McIntyre, Muhammadulin, and LionKing along with tight end Kavanagh and backs Woakneoa and Hunter. One issue coming into the season would be, do these players have sure enough hands to make it all work? The results will not shock you.


Throughout this season, the San Antonio receiving weapons have a combined 46 drops!


Kavanagh - 14

Mukhammadullin - 9

McIntyre - 8

Woakneoa - 8

LionKing - 5

BOT69 - 2

Hunter - 0


Let's also look at target totals!


Kavanah - 68

McIntyre - 52

Mukhammadulin - 44

LionKing - 30

Woakneoa - 13

Hunter - 5

BOT69 - 3


And Catch/Drop Rate!

Hunter - (80%/0%)

Mukhammadulin - (68.2%/20.5%)

LionKing - (60%/16.7%)

Kavanagh - (57.4%/20.6%)

McIntyre - (51.9%/15.4%)

Woakneoa - (46.2%/61.5%)

BOT69 - (33.3%/66.7%)


Okay let's analyze for a second. San Antonio is dropping the ball here...literally! 46 total drops in 6 games is way too much and your top targets in Kavanagh, McIntyre, and Mukhammadulin disappoint with their catch and drop rates in some manner!) One thing that really jumps off the page is that Woakneoa should never be targeted and despite having a TD on the season he has dropped 8 of his 13 targets this season which is a bit ridiculous.


What I did next was take Popopo's completion percentage without drops and it was a bit crazy...73.53% completion percentage and even when adjusted to having 25% less drops by the team overall, it still is 68.87%. Drops have caused a completion percentage drop of 15.63%! Crazy!


Next, we take a look at the receivers' stats and see the passer rating when throwing to each receiver. Keep in mind that Popopo's passer rating is currently 85% so anything above is a receiver helping his QB and lower would be hurting their QB.


Passer Rating To (Yards per Target)

McIntyre - 93.9% (8.58)

Mukhammadulin - 92.8% (8.59)

LionKing - 90.6% (6.57)

Woakneoa - 89.3% (5.54)

Hunter - 87.5% (5.00)

Kavanagh - 73.2% (4.72)

BOT69 - 42.4% (0.00)


Crazy right? Despite the drops, throwing to McIntyre, Mukhammadulin, LionKing and Woakneoa is providing adequate results though Woakneoa's is definitely boosted by a lone TD in limited targets. Kavanagh is someone that needs to step up his game it appears. As the most targeted player by far, Popopo having just a 73.2% passer rating to Kavanagh is a killer. With a 20.6% drop rate, it is very tough to see. As Kavanagh goes it appears so does the San Antonio offense and he needs to step up his game heading into the second half of the season soon!



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5 hours ago, LittleRiDog said:

Makes me wonder how VC2's completion percentage would look with less drops, since I'm assuming Denver has a good amount of drops.

I might look at this next (At a huge scale) but will probably need @MMFLEX to give me a list of team drops or just drops in general or else it would take forever. If I had to guess, most QBs would be around the same completion percentage without drops but I am curious to see what they look like taking those out!

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